Why Underdogs Are Thriving at World Cup 2026: Tactics and Expansion

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first to feature an expanded 48-team format, has been a festival of shocks. Cape Verde, ranked 64th in the world, held third-ranked Spain to a goalless draw. Curacao (81st) took points off Ecuador (29th), Ghana (65th) battled England (4th) to a stalemate, and South Africa (54th) frustrated South Korea (28th). Are these results a fluke of tournament football, or the product of meticulous planning and execution? A closer look at the tactical approaches and the changing landscape of international football suggests a deliberate, well-earned shift in the balance of power.

Defensive Masterclass: How Cape Verde Stifled Spain

Cape Verde’s 0-0 draw with Spain was not just a plucky rearguard action—it was a tactical triumph. According to BBC Sport, the third-smallest nation in World Cup history deployed a narrow 4-5-1 shape that stayed vertically compact at all times. The gap between the midfield and defensive lines rarely stretched, denying Spain the pockets of space that their creative players crave.

Crucially, Cape Verde refused to be drawn out by Spain’s patient passing. When the Spanish defenders recycled possession and passed backwards, the typical response from an underdog is to press high, hoping to force a turnover. But Cape Verde’s midfielders held their ground. They did not “take the bait,” as the BBC analysis put it, preserving the compact block that made it almost impossible for Spain to play through the middle. Forced to go wide or over the top, Spain found few penetrative passes. Goalkeeper Vozinha was named man of the match for his assured handling and distribution, but it was the entire structure in front of him that made the result possible.

A Pattern of Compactness and Discipline

While each upset has its own context, a common thread runs through these performances: defensive organisation and emotional discipline. The World Cup underdogs have shown a willingness to cede possession without sacrificing shape. Against England, Ghana absorbed pressure for long periods, limiting the space behind their back line. Curacao, similarly, forced Ecuador into wide areas and repelled crosses with organised zonal marking. South Africa’s high-energy block against South Korea disrupted their rhythm and forced the Asian side into speculative long shots.

Though detailed tactical breakdowns of every match are still emerging, the trend mirrors the Cape Verde blueprint—compactness, coordinated pressing triggers only when the ball enters certain zones, and a refusal to chase back-passes. This defensive patience is a learned behaviour, often coached at club level by managers who emphasise transitional play

As the BBC Sport

piece highlighted, it is a deliberate strategy that can neutralise even the most star-studded attacks.

Expansion Opens the Door

The expanded 48-team format has drawn criticism from some who feared it would dilute quality. However, as noted by World Football Index, the results so far have proven the opposite. More teams mean more opportunities for football’s emerging nations to test themselves on the biggest stage. Cape Verde, Curacao, Ghana and South Africa might not have qualified under a 32-team format, or would have faced longer odds to do so. Now, their presence enriches the tournament.

Inclusion also accelerates development. Canada, cited by the same source, is an example of a nation that has used World Cup participation to build infrastructure and inspire a generation. While Canada were not among the early surprise packets, their growth trajectory underscores how a single appearance can transform a football culture. The 2026 tournament is already doing the same for others, giving them invaluable experience and boosting the professional ambitions of their players.

The Bigger Picture

The success of underdogs at this World Cup has significant implications for the future of international football. For the traditional powerhouses, it is a warning that reputation and individual talent are no longer enough. Spain, England and other favourites must now expect well-drilled defensive blocks and develop new ways to break them down—perhaps through quicker switches of play, more inventive set-pieces, or even tactical fouls to disrupt counter-attacks.

For the smaller nations, these results validate their approach and can trigger a virtuous cycle of investment and interest. Players from Curacao, Ghana and South Africa will return home as heroes, and the next generation will grow up believing they can compete with anyone. The 2026 World Cup may become the catalyst for a more equitable global football landscape, where tactical intelligence and collective commitment can bridge the gap between the elite and the rest. If the early matches are any guide, the rest of the tournament will be shaped not just by stars, but by smart, resilient teams who refuse to take the bait.