Belgium Going Out? Chris Sutton’s World Cup 2026 Predictions Spark Alarm

As the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches its decisive final matches, the threat of a seismic shock looms: Belgium, for so long a powerhouse of international football, could be heading for an early exit. That’s the stark scenario painted by BBC Sport expert Chris Sutton, whose latest score predictions suggest the Red Devils’ tournament might be cut short. With the tournament already delivering upsets — none more so than Cape Verde’s stunning draws against Spain and Uruguay — the question “Belgium going out?” is no longer unthinkable. Sutton’s form in calling results has improved as the tournament has progressed, and his final round of group stage picks is likely to send a chill through the Belgian camp.

Sutton’s Shocking Call

After a patchy start, Chris Sutton’s prediction engine has warmed up at this World Cup. In the second round of group games, he correctly forecast 14 of 24 results, beating his own first-round tally of 12. The BBC’s AI predictor also improved, from 13 to 15, but the real stars were the users, who racked up 18 correct picks after managing just 13 in the opening set. Now, with the tournament’s business end looming, Sutton has turned his attention to the final round of group-stage matches — and the headline act is Belgium’s potential demise.

Sutton has been bold from the outset. In Group A, he backed South Korea to top the group and Mexico to follow them through, leaving Czech Republic and South Africa out of the knockout mix. That willingness to go against the grain now extends to Group G, where Belgium’s fortunes hang in the balance. While the full detail of Sutton’s predicted order of all 12 groups is known to BBC Sport readers, the implication is clear: Belgium, a nation that finished third in 2018 and topped the FIFA rankings for long periods, could tumble out before the knockout rounds. For a team that swatted aside Croatia 2-0 and Tunisia 5-0 in recent friendlies, as noted by Fox Sports, the very notion is a gut punch to their loyal fans.

Belgium’s Transitional Turbulence

The Fox Sports preview of Belgium’s opening match against Egypt captures the conundrum facing Roberto Martinez’s successors. “Belgium has been one of Europe’s most consistent national teams over the past decade,” the analysis reads, “however, heading into the 2026 World Cup, Belgium arrives in a transitional phase, shifting from its long-established core to a new generation of talent.” That transition is not without its teething problems

Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku

remain influential, but the supporting cast around them is less battle-hardened than the golden generation that dominated for years.

Yet, on paper, Belgium’s recent form is superb. The two friendly victories cited by Fox Sports suggest a team hitting its stride just as the tournament begins. However, friendlies can be deceiving. Egypt, their Group G opener, will provide a much sterner test. The Pharaohs are built around Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, and will be no pushovers. If Belgium slip up there, the pressure will mount exponentially heading into their final group match. Sutton’s predictions may well factor in that Egypt, alongside another group opponent, could exploit Belgium’s generational flux and send them packing.

The Final Group Gauntlet

The unique format of the expanded 2026 tournament means that a single defeat in a group stage can be fatal, and the final set of matches often throws up dramatic turnarounds. The BBC’s user prediction game has already shown that vast majorities can be wrong — only 83% of users correctly backed Cape Verde to avoid defeat against Uruguay, after 99.65% had expected them to lose to Spain. Such unpredictability is what makes Sutton’s job so fraught. He will have weighed up Belgium’s need for results, the strength of Egypt and their other group foes, and the mental fragility that sometimes accompanies transitional sides.

If Belgium fail to navigate their final group fixture successfully, it would mark one of the biggest shocks in modern World Cup history. For context, none of the traditional European powerhouses exited as early in Qatar 2022, making Belgium’s potential collapse all the more startling. A defeat against Egypt on matchday one would leave them on the brink, and a draw in their last game might not be enough if rivals have taken maximum points. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Editor’s Take: Tournament Impact

Should Chris Sutton’s grim forecast materialize, the repercussions would ripple far beyond Brussels. Belgium’s elimination at the group stage would remove a huge marketing asset and a genuine contender from the knockout bracket, opening a clearer path for the likes of Portugal, Spain or Brazil on that side of the draw. Concretely, if Egypt seize the moment — as they are favoured to do according to Fox Sports’ match preview — they would likely top Group G and avoid a last-32 clash with a top seed, dramatically reshaping the knockout landscape. For Belgium, it would accelerate the overhaul already underway, forcing the federation to fully embrace the next generation without the safety net of the old guard. And for the tournament itself, a Belgium-less knockout phase would confirm that the 2026 World Cup is no place for sentiment. Cape Verde have already proven that reputations count for little; the Red Devils may be next to learn that lesson.